60多湖 淳70Atsushi TAGO経済的相互依存に関する理解と納得がもたらす国民融和効果の研究：サーベイ実験による検証(2014年採択)A Study on Economic Interdependence Perception and Conciliatory Attitudes toward Foreign Countries: A Survey Experiment(Project 2014)The purpose of this study is to examine the internalizing process of small-scale hydro power in the K village in the Mbinga District in Southern Tanzania from the viewpoint of a socio-cultural aspect. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) socio-cultural elements which affect the internalizing process which include not only indigenous (traditional) ones but also peopleʼs experiences that were gained under past rural devel-opment assistances; (2) incorporating a feeling of fun or self-worth that challenges the people is the key ele-ment in determining the promotion of internalizing concepts and small-scale hydro power that have such ele-ments. Although this is the main advantage of small-scale hydro power toward a internalizing a concept, this is effective only when being conscious of the findings as mentioned in (1).数多くの研究者が経済的相互依存，そして国家間の経済的な密接なつながりが武力紛争のリスクを減らすと唱えてきた．しかし，こういった，いわゆる「商業的平和」の議論はマクロレベルの分析，そして二か国をペアに考えるダイアディックのレベルの分析で検証されてきたにとどまり，個人を分析の単位とする，マイクロファンデーションを明らかにするような研究は限られてきた．われわれは，世論・大衆が他国と経済的なつながりを認識し，紛争のコストを理解することが，リーダーの手を縛り，その武力行使に訴える選択を抑制すると考える．すなわち，実際に経済的相互依存が深化し，経済的な潜在コストが存在することが政治的に武力行使に訴えるコストを規定するのではなく，民意がそのような依存関係や潜在コストをどの程度理解しているかこそが重要で，逆に民意がそのような関係やコストを理解しないことが武力紛争の抑制を生み出さない可能性がある．そこで，われわれは個人のパーセプションに着目し，経済的相互依存と紛争のエスカレーションを支持する態度の関係を，サーベイ実験手法で解き明かした．われわれは，相互依存に関する知識と情報は中国との領土紛争に際して，紛争をエスカレートするか，平和的な解決を支持するのかの態度に影響するとの実証データを得た．Many scholars argue that economic interdependence and more extensive economic ties between countries decreases the risk of violent conflict between them. However, despite considerable research on the "capitalist peace" at the macro or dyadic level, there has been less attention to its possible individual-level microfounda-tions or underpinnings. We argue that public perceptions about economic ties with other states and the costs of conflict should influence the expected constraints on the use of force for leaders. Actual high interdepend-ence and potential economic costs may not suffice to create political constraints on the use of force if people are unaware of the degree of interdependence, or fail to understand the benefits of trade and the likely eco-nomic costs of disruptive conflict. We examine the linkages between individual perceptions about economic interdependence and their views on conflict and peace through a survey experiment, where we ask respond-ents in Japan about approval for belligerent actions in a territorial dispute with China, varying information about economic ties. Our findings indicate that greater knowledge and information about economic interde-pendence affects attitudes about territorial disputes and increases support for peaceful solutions with China.
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