56中村 征樹71Masaki NAKAMURA佐々木啓明72Hiroaki SASAKI炭鉱開発と地域社会の変容に関する調査研究－長崎県池島の事例 (2014年採択)Coal Mines development and the transformation of regional society- A study of Ikeshima Island in Nagasaki (Project 2014)人口減少経済における枯渇資源の影響と持続的経済発展の可能性 (2014年採択)Non-renewable Resources and the Possibility of Sustainable Economic Development in Negative-Population-Growth Economies (Project 2014)将来にわたって持続可能な地域社会のあり方とはどのようなものだろうか．そのような問いの検討に資するべく，本研究では，戦後に開発がはじまり，2001年に閉山した長崎県池島炭鉱に注目して，炭鉱開発に伴って地域社会がこうむった変化と，炭鉱閉山後に直面した課題について検討を行った．炭鉱開発とともに池島では，急速にインフラや福利厚生施設等が整備され，生活環境は急激に向上した．しかし，そのような繁栄は長くは続かなかった．炭鉱閉山後，池島は急速に衰退していく．人口規模の大幅な縮小，離島という自然条件，生産年齢人口の極端な人口流出と急速な高齢化の進展が急速な衰退の要因となったが，それは池島の急速な発展と密接に結びついたものでもあった．What are the conditions required for a sustainable regional community? In order to contribute to such a dis-cussion, we examined the case of the Ikeshima Coal Mine, which started operation on an isolated island called Ikeshima in the 1950s and closed in 2001. In this study, the changes the regional community under-went and also the challenges they faced after coal mine closure are discussed. Along with the development of the coal mine, infrastructure and welfare facilities were rapidly developed on the island, and the living condi-tions also improved sharply. However, such prosperity did not last long. A significant reduction of residents – especially due to the outflow of working-age people, the subsequent rapid aging of the population, and the natural hardship of life on an isolated island became the causes of the rapid decline of Ikeshima. Most of these phenomena can be closely linked to its initial rapid development following the opening of the coal mine.本研究の目的は，資源制約がある経済において人口成長率がマイナスの場合に，長期における人口1人当たり産出の成長率がどのように決定されるのかを，理論モデルを用いて分析することである．これにより，先進国において現実に生じている人口減少と資源の枯渇化が経済成長に与える影響を分析することが可能となる．分析の結果，人口成長率がプラスであってもマイナスであっても，人口1人当たり産出の成長率は，条件次第で，正の値をとることがわかった．これは，枯渇資源が存在し，かつ人口が減少する経済であっても，持続的な経済成長が可能であることを示唆している．The purpose of this study is to investigate how the long-run growth rate of per capita output is determined when the economy is subject to non-renewable resource constraints and the population growth is negative by using a theoretical model. From this, we can examine the effect of population decline and the effect of deple-tion of natural resources on economic growth. Our results show that irrespective of whether the population growth rate is positive or negative, the long-run growth rate of per capita output can be positive depending on conditions. This result suggests that even an economy with non-renewable resources and declining population can attain sustainable economic growth.
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